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DataBank

Metadata Glossary

CodeNYGDPMKTPKDZ
Indicator NameGDP growth, constant (average 2010-19 prices and market exchange rates)
SourceWorld Bank, Global Economic Prospects database.
TopicMacroeconomic forecasts
PeriodicitySemi-annual
Derivation methodThe forecast process starts with initial assumptions about advanced-economy growth and commodity price forecasts. These are used as conditioning assumptions for the first set of growth forecasts for EMDEs, which are produced using macroeconometric models, accounting frameworks to ensure national account identities and global consistency, estimates of spillovers from major economies, and high-frequency indicators. These forecasts are then evaluated to ensure consistency of treatment across similar EMDEs. This is followed by extensive discussions with World Bank country teams, who conduct continuous macroeconomic monitoring and dialogue with country authorities. Throughout the forecasting process, staff use macroeconometric models that allow the combination of judgement and consistency with model-based insights.
Aggregation methodAggregate growth for the world and all sub-groups of countries (such as regions and income groups) is calculated as GDP-weighted average (at average 2010-19 prices and market exchange rates) of country-specific growth rates. Income groups are defined as in the World Bank's classification of country groups.
Limitations and exceptionsGDP data are on fiscal year basis for Bangladesh, Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nepal, and Uganda, and are based on factor cost for Pakistan
General commentsData used to prepare country forecasts are from a variety of sources. National Income Accounts (NIA), Balance of Payments (BOP), and fiscal data are from Haver Analytics; the World Development Indicators by the World Bank; the "World Economic Outlook", Balance of Payments Statistics, and International Financial Statistics by the International Monetary Fund. Population data and forecasts are from the "World Population Prospects" by the United Nations. Country- and lending-group classifications are from the World Bank. DECPG databases include commodity prices, data on previous forecast vintages, and in-house country classifications. Other internal databases include high-frequency indicators such as industrial production, consumer price indexes, house prices, exchange rates, exports, imports, and stock market indexes, based on data from Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, OECD Analytical House Prices Indicators, IMF Balance of Payments Statistics, and IMF International Financial Statistics.
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